Explainer: Implications of geopolitical crisis on West African trade relations

Since January 2025 erstwhile Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso officially withdrew their rank of the Economic Communities of West African States (ECOWAS), the departure has near a large ace successful the determination bloc’s committedness towards African determination integration on authorities and economical borderline.

West Africa’s commercialized aboriginal hangs successful the balance—Rahaman Abiola explains however ECOWAS sanctions whitethorn worsen economical instability. Photo credit: Juanmonino
Source: Getty Images

The exit of these countries, present chosen to beryllium identified arsenic the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), is not the archetypal clip the ECOWAS’ quality to support its members successful pursuit of akin economical interests has been subjected to a litmus test. Since its constitution successful 1975, the determination powerfulness bloc has suffered the aforesaid rupture twice, with Mauritania withdrawing to prosecute an economical confederation with the Maghreb successful 2020.

More than 2 decades later, the aforesaid destiny befell the President Bola Tinubu-led ECOWAS after the assemblage rang the suspension doorbell astatine the 3 countries pursuing subject takeovers, which respectively occurred successful July 2023 (Niger), September 2022 (Burkina Faso) and August 2021 successful Mali.

The determination by the Sahelian leaders to form caller alliance has been wide adjudged to beryllium triggered by the ECOWAS’ draconian effect to the spreading putschist involvement successful the West African portion amid heightened geopolitical tension. On a broader view, it likewise underscores ECOWAS’ incapacity to code member-specific needs, coupled with over-reliance connected sanctions alternatively of diplomatic engagement successful effect to the disruption of antiauthoritarian bid by soldiers.

But beyond the veneer of segregated organization involvement and confrontation betwixt the junta-led states and the ECOWAS, determination is simply a large smokescreen of factors jeopardising commercialized relations successful the West African region.

It would beryllium recalled that aft sanctions were announced by ECOWAS, Nigeria closed its onshore and aerial borders with its negbouring state Niger and chopped disconnected energy supply. Among different galore antagonistic impacts, the improvement dealt a important stroke to cross-border commercialized relations and econonic alignment, threatening implicit $1.3 billion successful commercialized on the trans-Saharan way owed to regularisation connected goods question betwixt Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Mali, Tunisia, and Algeria.

On a larger standard of impact, this situation is going to weaken the spot of ECOWAS arsenic the economical motor country successful Africa. In 2022, the assemblage reported full commercialized volumes, encompassing imports and exports, amounting to $277.22 cardinal — with Burkina Faso's exports liable for $4.55 billion, Mali's $3.91 cardinal and Niger's $446.14 million. Also, these 3 countries correspond astir 17% of ECOWAS's colonisation and relationship for astir 7% of its GDP. Their exit is going to bring a monolithic disruption to the ECOWAS economical dynamics.

The existent situation could besides interaction the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by disrupting ceremonial commercialized agreements. The AfCFTA, approved by the 18th mean Session of Assembly of Heads of State and Government, successful 2012, is aimed astatine boosting intra commercialized narration successful Africa by creating “a azygous marketplace for goods, services, facilitated by question of persons successful bid to deepen the economical integration of the African continent… and make a liberalised marketplace for goods and services done successive rounds of negotiations.” The disruption whitethorn pb to an summation successful informal trade, particularly on borders betwixt Niger and Nigeria.

Traders and businesses successful West Africa conflict with rising commercialized barriers aft ECOWAS imposes sanctions connected military-led states. Photo credit: Anthony Pappone
Source: Getty Images

Since the opening of this crisis, which started with a spate of coups and ECOWAS sanctions, the nonsubjective for the constitution of the AfCFTA has been hindered arsenic discord continues to festers betwixt AES and ECOWAS members. AfCFTA’s ngo to “resolve the challenges of aggregate and overlapping memberships and expedite the determination and continental integration processes” volition beryllium little effective, and much states whitethorn take to question alternate economical realignment.

Recently, Togo’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Robert Dussey, hinted astatine the anticipation of the state joining the Alliance of Sahel States. Although helium near the determination to President Faure Gnassingbé, Dussey’s revelation that the “Togolese radical volition accidental yes” to joining the junta-led radical portends a troubling signifier susceptible of distorting commercialized relations operation successful West Africa and the continent astatine large.

There is simply a anticipation of accrued commercialized barriers arsenic citizens of the dissenting countries look tighter restrictions and constricted intra-regional movement. Similarly, landlocked countries similar Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso whitethorn look higher import costs without escaped entree to coastal ports specified arsenic Cotonou, Lomé, Abidjan, oregon Tema successful what whitethorn further airs situation to continental unity. One of the cardinal projects which whitethorn beryllium affected is the Kano-Maradi railway.

The project, approved by erstwhile president Muhammadu Buhari-led Federal Executive Council successful September 2020, is simply a 283.75 km modular gauge railway enactment connecting Kano, Jigawa, and Katsina states successful Nigeria to Maradi successful Niger Republic. With $1.8 cardinal declaration covering plan and construction, it is amied astatine improving determination trade, stimulate economical growth, amended proscription and connectivity betwixt Nigeria and Niger. Although the project is inactive ongoing, hostility betwixt Niger and Nigeria whitethorn distort the archetypal projection of the infrastructure being completed successful 2026.

The ongoing situation whitethorn consequently increase food insecurity and let much outer power successful West African commercialized activities and affairs, further causing disintegration among the West African states. Russia, for instance, has cemented relations with the deviant army-led nations, providing subject and economical enactment successful Moscow's interest. This determination puts the African economy astatine the mercy of neo-colonial imperialism and semi-feudal agrarian structure.

Achieving escaped commercialized requires an intentional and strategical effect to members’ economical needs. ECOWAS, arsenic an umbrella economical assemblage recognised by the African Union (UN), indispensable unrecorded up to its presumption by reviewing its engagement mechanics successful the look of a increasing putschist agenda. Diplomatic means should beryllium deployed alternatively of sanctions, portion each members indispensable enactment their eggs successful the aforesaid handbasket to prosecute akin interests against idiosyncratic ego.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed present are those of the writer and bash not needfully bespeak the authoritative argumentation oregon presumption of Legit.ng.

Rahaman Abiola is simply a writer and a 2025 escaped commercialized chap astatine the Ominira Initiative for Economic Advancement.

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Source: Legit.ng